Francisco Prado

Prado has stayed more active and threatening in defeat while Bonfim's output has fallen off sharply

Both men are on three-fight losing runs on file, so this comes down to how competitive those losses were. Prado stayed busy and dangerous in his — 59, 47 and 29 significant strikes, plus 3 takedowns and 6:49 of control against Nikolay Veretennikov and two submission attempts against Charles Radtke — while Bonfim managed just 1 significant strike against Axel Sola, 42 against Chris Padilla and 26 in a stand-up loss (no takedowns, no control time by either man) to Nazim Sadykhov. Prado's superior recent activity and threat on the mat make him the narrow side, though Bonfim's deeper record (20-7 vs 12-5) keeps this close.