Abus Magomedov

Magomedov's finishing threat — a knockdown and a submission attempt on only 10 significant strikes in his most recent win

Magomedov (29-7-1) is coming off a win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in which he scored a knockdown and a submission attempt on just 10 significant strikes; earlier in his file he out-struck Michel Pereira 78 significant strikes in a win, though he dropped a decision-length fight to Joe Pyfer in between. Rowston (15-3) is on three straight wins, including 3 takedowns and 10:10 of control against Robert Bryczek, 2:04 of control against Cody Brundage, and a knockdown of Andre Petroski — so the grappling-and-control route is genuinely available to him. It is close to a coin flip, but Magomedov's demonstrated finishing threat is the narrow tiebreaker.