BOS

Gray 16-3, 2.79 against Gusto's 4.37 ERA

Sonny Gray (16-3, 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) faces Ryan Gusto (0-3, 4.37) in a dome where the park factor is 0.95. Miami is carrying eight pitchers on the injured list, including Pete Fairbanks and Anthony Bender, so any lead Boston builds meets a thinned-out bullpen. The -159 price implies 61%; the starter and relief-depth gap justifies a few points more, even with Miami 41-27 at home.